Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week — Feb 27, 2026
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"In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." — Benjamin Graham
Feb 27, 2026
Q4 GDP Final Estimate: 2.3% Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its final Q4 2025 GDP estimate to 2.3%, up slightly from the 2.1% preliminary reading but down from Q3's 3.1%. Consumer spending remained the primary driver, though growth in goods consumption slowed. Most economists expect Q1 2026 to come in softer, reflecting higher rates and reduced government stimulus.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP, Q4 2025 (Final Estimate)
Core PCE Inflation: Above Target Again
January's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — came in at 3.0% year-over-year, above the 2.8% consensus and well above the Fed's 2% target. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.4%, the hottest reading in three months. The print effectively removes any near-term case for a rate cut.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — Personal Income and Outlays, January 2026
Average National Gasoline Price Hits Highest Since 2022
The national average for regular gasoline hit $4.26 per gallon this week — the highest since June 2022 — driven by refinery maintenance season and rising crude prices. In California, prices crossed $5.50 in several markets. The increase is hitting lower-income households disproportionately, as fuel costs represent a higher share of their budget.
Source: AAA — National Average Gas Prices
Americans Who Have Less Than $1,000 in Savings
A new Bankrate survey found that 25% of Americans have less than $1,000 in savings — and 19% have nothing at all. Emergency fund coverage remains one of the most persistent gaps in American household financial health. Notably, even among households earning $50,000 or more, 18% reported having less than $1,000 saved.
Source: Bankrate — Annual Emergency Savings Report, 2026
Average Tax Refund So Far This Season
The IRS has issued an average refund of $640 so far in the 2026 tax season — about 4% higher than the same point in 2025. With millions still waiting on their returns, refund spending is already boosting retail sales data in February and March. Economists often track refund amounts as a leading indicator for consumer spending in Q1.
Source: Internal Revenue Service — Filing Season Statistics