Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week — Feb 20, 2026
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GDP, a record deficit, housing stuck in place, and a labor market that looks fine — until you look closer.
Feb 20, 2026
Q4 2025 GDP Growth (Advance Estimate)
The BEA released the advance estimate of Q4 2025 GDP growth at 1.4% annualized — sharply below Q3's 4.4% and below the 2.1% consensus. The deceleration was driven by a pullback in government spending and exports, though consumer spending remained positive. It's the weakest quarter since Q1 2023, and the full-year 2025 print landed at 2.6%.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Advance Estimate, Q4 2025
Federal Deficit for Fiscal Year 2025
The U.S. ran a $1.83 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2025 — the third-largest in nominal terms, behind only the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. As a share of GDP, the deficit came in at roughly 6.4%. The CBO projects it will widen further in 2026 before any fiscal consolidation measures take effect.
Source: Congressional Budget Office — Budget and Economic Outlook 2026
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate holds near 6.85% — elevated enough to keep affordability at near-record lows. The number of homes listed for sale is near a 10-year high, but transaction volume remains depressed: sellers need to move, but buyers can't qualify or won't stretch. The market is stuck.
Source: Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
Unemployment Rate, January 2026
The January jobs report showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.0%, with 143,000 jobs added — roughly in line with expectations. Beneath the headline, however, the labor force participation rate ticked down and part-time employment for economic reasons rose slightly. It's a solid number that, if you squint, starts to look a little softer.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, January 2026
Share of Workers Who Would Take a Pay Cut to Work From Home
A new Stanford/Glassdoor survey found that 56% of workers say they'd accept a salary reduction of up to 8% to maintain full remote flexibility — up from 43% in 2023. The data suggests remote work preferences have hardened, not softened, as more employers push return-to-office. The wage premium for in-office work may need to get a lot bigger to change minds.
Source: Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research / Glassdoor