Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week
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Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week
"The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" — Sir John Templeton
Big Tech's Combined AI Spend in 2026
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are collectively on track to spend roughly $650 billion on capital expenditures this year, nearly all of it driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure — data centers, chips, and cooling systems. Amazon alone announced $200 billion in planned capex for 2026, while Alphabet nearly doubled its prior guidance to $175–185 billion. The scale is without precedent: each company's individual 2026 budget is expected to rival or exceed its spending over the past three years combined.
Source: Bloomberg / Company Earnings Reports
Gold Price — Up Roughly 100% in a Year
Gold was trading near $5,000 per ounce this week, roughly double its price from a year ago when it sat around $2,300. The surge has been fueled by persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained central bank buying — China's central bank extended its gold purchases for a fifteenth consecutive month in January. Gold briefly topped $5,600 in late January before pulling back sharply, a reminder that even "safe haven" assets can see dramatic volatility.
Source: Fortune — Daily Gold Price
Social Security Trust Fund Insolvency Date
The CBO's latest projections, released this month, moved Social Security's retirement trust fund insolvency date up to fiscal year 2032 — one year sooner than previously estimated. If Congress takes no action, beneficiaries would face an automatic cut of roughly 24% across the board. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a typical couple retiring at that point would lose about $18,400 per year. The acceleration was driven in part by recent legislation, higher benefit costs from inflation adjustments, and lower projected immigration.
Source: Congressional Budget Office — February 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook
U.S. Tariff Revenue Collected in 2025
The U.S. collected $287 billion in customs duties, taxes, and fees during calendar year 2025 — a 192% increase over the prior year, according to Treasury data. That's more than triple what tariffs brought in just two years earlier. The jump reflects a wave of new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and others. The average effective tariff rate on all imports rose from about 2.2% in January 2025 to roughly 17% by year-end, the highest in nearly a century.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond — Macro Minute
Fed Holds Rates Steady to Start 2026
At its first meeting of 2026, the Federal Reserve voted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, a level that's come down significantly from the cycle peak of 5.25–5.50% but is still well above the near-zero rates of early 2022. Two governors voted in favor of a cut, but Chair Powell indicated the committee wants clearer evidence that tariff-driven inflation will prove temporary before easing further. Markets are pricing in two more cuts this year, most likely in June and September.
Source: Federal Reserve — FOMC Statement, January 2026