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The 5-Stat

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Tuesday, February 24, 2026

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The Supreme Court Rewrote the Trade War

"The power to impose tariffs is 'very clearly a branch of the taxing power.'" — Chief Justice John Roberts, Learning Resources v. Trump (2026). On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down the president's tariff regime. By Saturday, a new one had already taken its place.

6–3

The Supreme Court Struck Down IEEPA Tariffs

In a 6–3 decision handed down Friday, February 20th, the Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice Roberts, writing for a coalition that included Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jackson, ruled that the power to tax imports belongs to Congress under Article I of the Constitution. The decision invalidated both the "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs and the fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China — virtually the entire IEEPA-based trade regime built over the past year.

Source: Supreme Court of the United States — Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, 607 U.S. ___ (2026)

~$175B

The Refund Bill Nobody Knows How to Pay

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that importers may be owed up to $175 billion in refunds for duties collected under the now-invalid IEEPA authority — a figure that exceeds the combined annual budgets of the Department of Transportation and the Department of Justice. More than 1,500 companies had already filed lawsuits before the ruling. But the Court said nothing about whether or how refunds should be issued. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the process could drag on for "weeks, months, years." Senate Democrats introduced legislation Monday to force refunds within 180 days.

Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model — IEEPA Revenue and Potential Refunds

15%

Trump's Replacement Tariff — Effective Today

Within hours of the ruling, the president invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a new 10% tariff on imports from all countries. By Saturday, he had raised it to 15% — the maximum allowed under that statute. The tariff takes effect today, February 24th, at 12:01 a.m. ET. Unlike IEEPA, Section 122 comes with a hard expiration: 150 days, or July 24th, unless Congress votes to extend it. The administration has also directed USTR to launch Section 301 investigations covering most major trading partners.

Source: CNBC — Trump to hike global tariffs to 15%

150 Days

The Clock Is Already Ticking

Section 122 was designed for temporary balance-of-payments emergencies, not as a long-term trade tool. The statute limits tariffs to 150 days — meaning the new 15% global tariff expires on July 24th unless Congress acts. The administration is simultaneously launching Section 301 and expanding Section 232 investigations to build replacement tariff authority on firmer legal ground, but those processes take months. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said the combined authorities will produce "virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026." Whether that's achievable on this timeline remains an open question.

Source: WilmerHale — Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs: What Now?

9.1%

The Effective Tariff Rate — Still the Highest Since 1946

Even with IEEPA tariffs wiped off the books, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate on U.S. imports is now 9.1% — the highest since 1946, excluding the 2025 IEEPA-era peak. That's because Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, trucks, copper, and semiconductors remain untouched, as do existing Section 301 tariffs. The trade war didn't end Friday. The Court ruled that the president used the wrong weapon — not that he can't fight.

Source: The Budget Lab at Yale — State of U.S. Tariffs: SCOTUS Ruling Update