Five Figures That Caught Our Eye — Mar 6, 2026
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Jobs Day fell on the seventh day of a war. Five numbers worth pausing on.
Mar 6, 2026
The Premium for Switching Jobs Just Hit a Record Low
According to ADP's February employment report, job-changers saw 6.3% year-over-year pay growth last month — the narrowest edge over job-stayers (at 4.5%) in the history of ADP's data series. During the pandemic era, that premium ran as wide as 6 to 7 percentage points in switchers' favor. The labor market hasn't frozen, but it's not rewarding mobility the way it once did. Professional and business services shed 30,000 positions in February, a reminder that the sectors still hiring — mainly health care and construction — aren't the ones most workers are looking to switch into.
Source: ADP Research Institute — National Employment Report, February 2026
Iraq Stopped Pumping — Not Because of War, But Because It Has Nowhere to Put the Oil
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, cut nearly 1.5 million barrels per day this week after Basra's export terminals filled to capacity — a downstream consequence of the Hormuz standstill, not a direct attack. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Iraq has no alternative pipeline route; every barrel flows through southern ports that are now effectively landlocked. J.P. Morgan warned that Iraq and Kuwait together could shed up to 3.3 million barrels per day if the strait remains closed. The oil market isn't running on hypotheticals anymore — it's running on full tanks.
Source: Bloomberg / J.P. Morgan Research
Jerome Powell's Last Day as Fed Chair Is 78 Days Away — and Nobody Knows Who Comes Next
Powell's second and final term as Fed chair ends May 23, 2026, and President Trump has still not named a replacement. Frontrunners reportedly include Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former Treasury official Kevin Warsh, but no announcement has come. The incoming chair will inherit a difficult inbox: oil surging, a 15% tariff in effect, core inflation still above target, and a market that has pushed the first expected rate cut to September at the earliest. Whoever takes the job walks into a room with almost no good options — and a president who has spent two years demanding lower rates.
Source: Federal Reserve Board
The Federal Workforce Has Shrunk by More Than 10% Since Late 2024
Since federal employment peaked in October 2024, the U.S. government has shed 327,000 workers — a 10.9% reduction driven by DOGE-era voluntary departures, contested layoffs, and return-to-office attrition. January alone saw a loss of 34,000 federal positions, and the February employment report out this morning is expected to show further declines. There are now fewer federal civilian employees than at any point since the late 1980s. The impact ripples beyond Washington: local economies built around government work, federal contractors, and service recipients are all absorbing effects that don't yet fully appear in the headline numbers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, January 2026
Palantir Is the Year's Surprise Winner — and That's Worth Sitting With
Palantir Technologies has surged more than 95% year-to-date as of Wednesday's close — one of the S&P 500's strongest performances through early March, and a run that puts the company on track to snap a multi-year losing streak. Analysts at Rosenblatt doubled their price target to $200 this week, writing that the war 'regrettably underscores the value of Palantir' over conventional AI software — a nod to the platform's role in real-time military planning and logistics. Palantir sits at the intersection of every narrative driving markets in 2026: AI disruption, defense spending, and geopolitical risk. It's up 95% in ten weeks. Make of that what you will.
Source: CNBC / Rosenblatt Securities