College ROI Landscape

Data Sources

Earnings data comes from the U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard (data.ed.gov), which reports median earnings of students 10 years after first enrollment. This is the field MD_EARN_WNE_P10 in the Scorecard dataset. Graduation rates (6-year completion), acceptance rates, and enrollment figures are from IPEDS (Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System). Tuition, fees, room, and board costs reflect published 2024–25 rates from institutional sources and NCES.

How 4-Year Cost Is Calculated

The "4-Year Cost" shown is sticker price — published annual tuition + fees + room & board, multiplied by four. This is the pre-aid, pre-scholarship figure. Actual out-of-pocket cost (net price) is often significantly lower, particularly at well-endowed private institutions that offer generous need-based aid. For example, Harvard's sticker price exceeds $300K, but families earning under $85K pay nothing. Always check a school's net price calculator for a personalized estimate.

How Break-Even Is Calculated

The break-even calculation uses a simple payback model: 4-year cost ÷ annual earnings premium. The earnings premium is the difference between a school's median earnings at 10 years ($35,000 baseline for high school graduates, per Bureau of Labor Statistics). For example, if a school costs $120K and its graduates earn $47K above the HS baseline, break-even is approximately 2.6 years. This is a simple payback — it does not discount future earnings to present value, account for earnings growth, or factor in opportunity cost of 4 years spent in school rather than working. A more sophisticated NPV-based model would extend break-even timelines somewhat.

How the 10-Year Break-Even Line Works

The dashed yellow line on the scatter plot represents the threshold where a school's total 4-year cost equals exactly 10 years of earnings premium. Schools above this line recoup their cost in under 10 years. Schools below it take longer than 10 years — or may never fully recoup at sticker price. The line is derived from the equation: earnings = $35K + (cost ÷ 10).

Limitations & Caveats

• Earnings are median across all graduates regardless of major. STEM and business graduates from any given school typically earn more than liberal arts graduates from the same school.
• Scorecard data measures earnings of all enrollees — including those who transferred or did not complete their degree. Schools with lower graduation rates may have depressed earnings figures as a result.
• "Dominant field" is the largest single program area by degrees awarded. Most universities are mixed, so this label is an approximation.
• For-profit school data should be interpreted cautiously — enrollment patterns, student demographics, and program structures differ significantly from traditional institutions.
• Cost and earnings data reflect different cohort years. Current students may face different costs and labor markets than the cohorts measured.
• This tool shows financial ROI only. College value extends beyond earnings to include network effects, personal development, research opportunities, and quality of life.

School Selection

This dataset includes 239 schools curated to represent the breadth of U.S. higher education: all Ivy League and top-25 national universities, major state flagships from all 50 states, the UC/CSU/SUNY systems, top liberal arts colleges, HBCUs, STEM-focused and healthcare-focused institutions, strong regional publics, and a sample of for-profit schools for comparison. It is not comprehensive — the U.S. has over 4,000 degree-granting institutions. Use the College Scorecard to look up any school not included here.