The 5-Stat

Five Numbers the Morning After Nvidia — May 21, 2026

Thursday, May 21, 2026

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"The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed." — Jensen Huang, on Nvidia's Q1 FY27 earnings call last night

May 21, 2026

$91B

Nvidia Blew the Doors Off After the Close — $81.6 Billion in Q1 Revenue, a Record $75.2 Billion in Data Center, and Q2 Guidance of $91 Billion That Came in Several Billion Above the Whisper Number

Nvidia reported after the bell Wednesday with revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year and beating the $78 billion consensus by $3.6 billion, alongside a record $75.2 billion in data-center revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 against $1.70 estimates. The headline of the print, though, wasn't Q1 — it was Q2 guidance of $91 billion ± 2%, several billion above the $86 billion sell-side consensus and a clear step over the whisper number that had been keeping bears alive. The board also authorized an additional $80 billion in buybacks and raised the quarterly dividend from one penny to 25 cents, a twenty-five-fold increase. The stock whipsawed in after-hours trade and closed Thursday's pre-market roughly flat, which is its own commentary on a print that would have moved any other company's stock 15%.

Source: Nvidia Q1 FY27 Earnings Release / CFO Commentary / CNBC

5.20%

The 30-Year Treasury Yield Hit 5.20% on Tuesday — Its Highest Reading Since 2008 — While the 10-Year Touched 4.70%, a 16-Month High, and the April Fed Minutes Revealed the Most Internal Dissent Since 1992

Long-end Treasury yields punched higher this week as the bond market continued to digest a 3.8% April CPI print, a 6% annual PPI run rate, and the implication that the Fed's next move under new Chair Kevin Warsh — sworn in last Friday — may not be down. The 30-year closed Tuesday at 5.20%, an 18-year high, and the 10-year touched 4.70% before easing back to 4.65% Wednesday afternoon. The April FOMC minutes released yesterday at 2 p.m. revealed an 8-4 vote to hold rates, the most committee dissent since October 1992, with several hawks pushing to strip the "easing bias" out of the statement language entirely. Futures markets now put the odds of a 2026 rate hike at roughly 40% — three months ago that number was zero.

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates / April 2026 FOMC Minutes / Trading Economics

$175.7B

Walmart Reported Q1 This Morning With Revenue of $175.7 Billion and EPS Right In Line — but Adjusted EBITDA Missed by $70 Million, Q2 Guidance Came in Below Consensus, and the Stock Fell 2.5% Premarket

Walmart's Q1 print landed at 7 a.m. with net sales up 6.1% year-over-year to $175.7 billion (a hair above the $174.9 billion estimate), adjusted EPS of $0.66 in line, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.31 billion versus the $11.38 billion expected. Q2 revenue guidance of $185.4 billion came in 0.5% below the $186.4 billion consensus, and management reaffirmed rather than raised full-year EPS guidance of $2.80 at the midpoint. The stock opened down 2.5% on numbers that were, on paper, perfectly fine. The more interesting contrast is with Target's blowout 5.6% comp twenty-four hours earlier: when the trade-down shopper Walmart usually catches starts showing up at the more expensive retailer instead, that's a mix shift no consumer survey has been describing.

Source: Walmart Inc. Q1 FY27 Earnings Release / Yahoo Finance / StockStory

$41.3B

SpaceX Filed Its 308-Page S-1 at 4:30 p.m. Yesterday Disclosing $18.7 Billion in 2025 Revenue, a $41.3 Billion Accumulated Deficit, and That Elon Musk Will Control 85% of the Voting Power on Day One

The long-awaited prospectus dropped after the close Wednesday and confirmed the broad strokes: SpaceX will list on the Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, with a target valuation reportedly north of $1.75 trillion, a roadshow beginning around June 4, and a likely June 12 trading debut. The financials surprised on a couple of fronts — 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion (Starlink doing two-thirds of it), a full-year net loss of $4.94 billion, a $4.27 billion loss in Q1 alone, and a $41.3 billion accumulated deficit over the company's 24-year history. Musk's Class B shares carry ten votes apiece, giving him roughly 85% of the voting power on day one — a structure that would make this both the largest IPO in history and one of the most founder-controlled public companies of its size, ever. Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers at quarter-end, well short of the 12 million figure that had been floating around the financial press.

Source: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. — Form S-1 / Fortune / CNBC

$9.64/lb

Lighter Note: Retail Beef Just Hit a Record $9.64 a Pound in April Heading Into Memorial Day Weekend — With the U.S. Cattle Herd at Its Smallest Size in 75 Years and Meat Sales Still Setting a $112 Billion Record

USDA's Economic Research Service pegs the April average retail price of all-fresh beef at $9.64 per pound — up $1.14, or 13%, from a year ago and the highest reading in the series. The reason is supply: the U.S. cattle inventory at the start of 2026 was at its smallest in 75 years, a function of drought, soaring feed costs, and ranchers who liquidated herds during the 2022–2024 squeeze. Meat sales nonetheless hit a record $112 billion in 2025, and USDA forecasts U.S. beef consumption will rise this year despite the prices — chicken is taking some of the load, but Americans still want the brisket. The roughly 39 million people driving somewhere this weekend are going to grill when they get there. They're just going to pay for it.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service / American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel / Parade