The 5-Stat

Five Numbers Before Nvidia Reports — May 20, 2026

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

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Target stunned the Street with a 5.6% comp before the bell, Lowe's quietly outperformed Home Depot, and the most important AI print of the quarter drops at 4:20 p.m. Eastern.

May 20, 2026

+5.6%

Target Posted Its First Positive Quarterly Comp in Five Quarters This Morning — at +5.6% — Topping Estimates by More Than Four Percentage Points and Triggering a Mid-Year Guidance Raise

Target reported Q1 before the bell with net sales up 6.7% to $25.4 billion, comparable sales rising 5.6% — versus a 1.4% consensus and management's own ~1% prior projection — and adjusted EPS of $1.71 against $1.46 estimates. The print ended four consecutive quarters of negative comps; traffic was up 4.4% and digital comps rose 8.9% on strength in same-day delivery through Target Circle 360. Management doubled its full-year sales growth target to roughly 4% and guided EPS to the high end of the $7.50–$8.50 range, with the stock jumping more than 3% premarket. The Target story and yesterday's Home Depot miss don't square neatly — the same consumer who isn't renovating the kitchen is apparently still filling a cart at Target.

Source: Target Corporation Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release / CNBC

+0.6%

Lowe's Reported a Quietly Strong Q1 With +0.6% Comparable Sales — Its Fourth Consecutive Quarter of Positive Comps, Against Home Depot's −1.3% Print Twenty-Four Hours Earlier

Lowe's came in slightly ahead of expectations this morning with revenue of $23.1 billion (up 10.3% year-over-year, helped by the Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group acquisitions), comparable sales up 0.6%, and adjusted EPS of $3.03 versus the $2.97 consensus. Online sales rose 15.5% and Pro-customer momentum continued — the segment Lowe's has spent two years aggressively chasing as the DIY shopper softens. For years, Home Depot's much larger Pro base was the structural advantage in this matchup; the −1.3% comp HD reported yesterday and the +0.6% Lowe's posted today suggest CEO Marvin Ellison's investment cycle is finally showing up where it counts. Lowe's also reaffirmed full-year guidance — comps flat to up 2% — at a moment when its much larger rival was leaning on "continued macroeconomic uncertainty" as cover.

Source: Lowe's Companies, Inc. Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release / CNBC

$78B

Nvidia Reports Q1 FY27 After the Close — Consensus Calls for Roughly $78 Billion in Quarterly Revenue, the Options Market Is Pricing an 8–10% Move, and the Stock Sits Atop the World at $5.39 Trillion

Wall Street consensus heading into the 4:20 p.m. release is roughly $78 billion in revenue and $1.77 in non-GAAP EPS, with data center revenue expected near $73 billion — a single business segment now larger than the entire revenue line of every S&P 500 company except Walmart and Amazon. Nvidia surpassed silver last week to become the second-largest asset on the planet behind gold; at a $5.39 trillion market cap, it is the most valuable publicly traded company on earth and has added more than $5 trillion in market value over the past five years. The stock has chopped sideways for three months while the S&P kept grinding higher, which means tonight isn't simply a beat-and-raise question — it's a market-cap question for the entire index. Options are pricing an 8–10% move on the print, in line with recent quarters.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / Companiesmarketcap.com / The Motley Fool

+82% / +14.9%

U.S. Jet Fuel Is Up 82% Since the Iran War Began and Airline Fares Are Up 14.9% Year-Over-Year — the Steepest Annual Increase in More Than Two Years — and Summer Airfare Is Tracking 27% Above Last Year

Jet fuel hit $4.56 a gallon this week per IATA, up roughly 82% since late February, and the latest CPI put U.S. airline fares 14.9% above year-ago levels — the hottest annual print since early 2023. United has warned fares may need to climb another 15% to 20% to fully absorb fuel costs, and Delta's CEO told investors on the Q1 call that higher checked-bag fees "will be here to stay" no matter where oil settles. Points Path's Memorial-Day-through-Labor-Day data now has summer airfare 27% above last year. For a country whose discretionary spending has held up better than every confidence survey predicted, the cost of getting somewhere is now part of the inflation problem in a way it wasn't six months ago.

Source: Points Path / IATA / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI / CBS News

$165B

Lighter Note: Americans Will Spend $165 Billion on Their Pets This Year — More Than the GDP of New Zealand — and One in Ten Pet Owners Says Pet Costs Are Why They're Delaying Having Kids

The American Pet Products Association's 2026 State of the Industry report pegs total U.S. pet spending at a projected $165 billion this year, up from $158 billion in 2025, with the average pet parent now spending $2,360 annually — and health-related expenses alone topping $1,100. Veterinary services have been one of the more reliable engines of "petflation": vet care and products generated $41 billion last year, and a 2025 Fortunly survey found that one in ten pet owners is putting off having (or adding to) children because of the cost of caring for their animals. The pet industry is now larger than the U.S. movie, music, and book industries combined. Somewhere out there, a labradoodle is currently more expensive than a child, and the labradoodle does not need to be put through college.

Source: American Pet Products Association 2026 State of the Industry / MetLife Pet Insurance / Fortunly