Five Numbers, One Year Later — Apr 4, 2026
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"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." — attributed to Mark Twain
Apr 4, 2026
One Year Ago Today, Markets Lost $6.6 Trillion in Two Days — Then Fully Recovered by June
On April 3–4, 2025, the Nasdaq entered bear territory and the S&P 500 posted its worst two-day decline in recorded history after Liberation Day tariffs triggered a full-scale panic — surpassing even the COVID crash in total value destroyed. By June 27, 2025, every dollar was back, and the S&P closed at an all-time high. One year later, oil is at $110 a barrel, an Iran deadline expires Tuesday night, and the question is whether the dip-buy playbook gets to run a second time.
Source: Dow Jones Market Data / CNN Business / Wikipedia — 2025 stock market crash
Gold Is Up 52% From Exactly One Year Ago — When the Liberation Day Crash Was Happening and Nobody Was Watching Bullion
On April 1, gold's spot price hit $4,749 per ounce — compared to $3,123 one year earlier, the same week stocks were in freefall. In a year that included an oil war, tariff whiplash, and a jobs market running on one sector, the world's oldest store of value has quietly outperformed almost every other asset class.
Source: Fortune / World Gold Price Pro
Moody's Now Puts Recession Odds at 49% — Basically a Coin Flip — and Their Chief Economist's Summary Is Worth Reading Twice
"Nothing else can go wrong. Like, nothing. We're pretty much on the edge" is how Mark Zandi put it this week — and that was before Trump's latest Iran ultimatum hit Truth Social. Goldman Sachs sits at 30%, EY-Parthenon at 40%, and Moody's at 49%, and the sheer range tells you that economic forecasters are less certain about the near-term U.S. outlook than at any point since March 2020.
Source: Moody's Analytics / Goldman Sachs / CNBC
Demand for Luxury Underground Bunkers Is Up 2,000% Year-Over-Year. (Entry Level: $21,000. The Good Seats: $3 Million.)
Vivos — one of the largest high-end bunker operators in the world — says bookings have exploded since the Iran war began, and competitors report their phones haven't stopped ringing since February 28. The Kansas missile silo community starts at $3 million per floor and comes with a pool, theater, and library, which is one way to say that some investors have stopped asking whether the market recovers and started asking whether the grid does.
Source: SOFREP / Fox Business / Hollywood Reporter
In April 2025's Panic, the 10-Year Treasury Fell to 3.86% as Investors Fled to Bonds. Today It Sits at 4.31% — During an Arguably Worse Macro Picture.
When Liberation Day sent markets spiraling last April, the bond market did its job: flight-to-safety buying pushed the 10-year yield down to 3.86%, a six-month low. Today — with oil at $110, recession odds near 50%, and the S&P down on the week — it's 45 basis points higher than at the equivalent moment of peak fear one year ago. Bonds still work as a panic hedge when investors fear deflation; they don't when they fear a war-driven oil shock is about to send inflation back above 3%.
Source: U.S. Treasury / Polymarket / Wikipedia — 2025 stock market crash