Five Numbers From a Very Busy Friday — Apr 3, 2026
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"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." — F.A. Hayek
Apr 3, 2026
March Added 178,000 Jobs — Goldman Estimates About 56,000 of Those Were Organic
The headline crushed the 59,000 consensus, but Goldman Sachs estimates that weather, Kaiser Permanente strikers returning to work, and BLS birth-death modeling quirks together accounted for 122,000 of the gain — leaving underlying job creation closer to 56,000. February was also quietly revised down a further 41,000 to -133,000 in today's release, meaning the "shocking" bad month was actually 44% worse than it looked when it was first announced.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, March 2026
On Liberation Day's One-Year Anniversary, the U.S. Average Effective Tariff Rate Stands at 11.0% — the Highest Since 1943
Yale's Budget Lab published its April 2 analysis showing the rate at 11.0%, up from 2.3% at the end of 2024 — a near-fivefold increase in twelve months. Even if the Section 122 levies expire as scheduled in 150 days, the rate falls to 8.2%, which would still be the highest since 1946.
Source: The Budget Lab at Yale — State of U.S. Tariffs: April 2, 2026
Trump's New 100% Pharma Tariff Already Has More Exemptions Than Targets
The proclamation signed April 2 exempts all generic drugs (roughly 90% of U.S. prescriptions by volume), all biosimilars, the 13 companies that already inked pricing deals with the White House, and any drug from a country with a trade agreement — leaving the 100% rate as a deadline for whoever hasn't yet come to the table. Think of it less as a tariff and more as a closing argument.
Source: White House Proclamation / CNBC
The IEA Says the Oil Supply Loss From the Iran War Is Larger Than the 1973 and 1979 Crises Combined
The 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution each cut roughly 5 million barrels per day — and both triggered global recessions. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol confirmed this week the current disruption exceeds 12 million, and warned that April will be worse than March, because the last pre-war tanker cargoes are only now arriving at port.
Source: IEA / CNBC
Wage Growth Hit Its Weakest Pace Since May 2021 in Today's Report — Right as Economists Forecast CPI to Break 3% for the First Time in Two Years
Average hourly earnings rose just 3.5% year-over-year in March, below expectations and decelerating, while economists project energy-driven inflation to push headline CPI back above 3% this spring. If that forecast lands, real wages will have turned negative again — earning more dollars while losing ground to prices, the kind of math that tends to show up in consumer confidence surveys about six months before it shows up in spending data.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics / CNN Business