Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week — Mar 20, 2026
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Spring began this morning. The fertilizer market would like a word.
Mar 20, 2026
Urea Fertilizer Jumped 32% in a Single Week — on the First Day of Spring Planting Season
Urea, the nitrogen pellet that feeds roughly half the world's crops, surged 32% at U.S. Gulf ports in one week as 44% of global seaborne supply sits stuck behind the Hormuz closure — right as American farmers need to buy it for spring planting. At current prices, an acre of corn costs a farmer $213 more than soybeans, which is why the USDA is already projecting a historic 4.8 million-acre shift in acreage; today's fertilizer prices show up in grocery bills this fall.
Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace / Center for Strategic and International Studies
Consumer Sentiment Is at the 2nd Percentile of Its History — Below Where It Stood at the Start of Every Recession Since 1978
The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading sits at the 2nd percentile of the survey's entire history and below the level recorded at the start of each of the six recessions measured since its 1978 launch. Half the survey was completed before the Iran war began; the post-war nine days erased all the gains from the first half.
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, March 2026
Seven Fed Officials Now Project Zero Rate Cuts in 2026 — Up Dramatically From December's Dot Plot
Wednesday's updated dot plot showed seven of the nineteen FOMC participants now projecting zero cuts this year — a sharp increase from December — as the Fed simultaneously raised its own 2026 core PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%. The median still calls for one cut, but seven is not a fringe dissent when there are only nineteen voters, and futures markets have now priced out meaningful easing before late in the year.
Source: Federal Reserve — Summary of Economic Projections, March 2026
March Madness Will Cost Employers $12 Billion in Lost Productivity — or About $107 Per Distracted Employee Per Hour
Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates that 26% of American workers will either call in or spend an average of 6.4 hours on tournament-related activities, adding up to $12 billion in lost productivity across the three-week run. In a week when economists are debating whether the U.S. is heading for a recession, the American workforce has collectively decided to watch college basketball anyway — which is either a worrying sign or a testament to resilience, depending on your bracket.
Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas / The Hill
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week Since February 1983 — During an Active War
Gold fell roughly 10% this week — on pace for its worst seven-day stretch in over 40 years — as a neat paradox played out: oil-driven inflation means the Fed can\'t cut rates, which raises the opportunity cost of holding the metal, which makes the classic war hedge the wrong trade for an oil war. It hit an all-time high of $5,595 in January and trades near $4,689 today.
Source: Bloomberg / CNBC