Five Figures That Caught Our Eye — Mar 19, 2026
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Hot PPI. A Dow at its 2026 low. The first home price decline in 14 years. And a chipmaker that just guided to more quarterly revenue than it earned in any full year before last year. March, everybody.
Mar 19, 2026
February's Wholesale Inflation Print Was More Than Double the Forecast — and the Oil Shock Isn't Even In It Yet
The Producer Price Index surged 0.7% month-over-month in February — more than twice the 0.3% consensus — pushing core PPI to 3.9% year-over-year, its highest reading in over a year. With Brent crude trading above $110 this morning, February's data doesn't even capture the oil shock. March's PPI print will.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Producer Price Index, February 2026
U.S. Home Prices Posted Their First Year-Over-Year Decline Since 2012
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index fell 0.2% year-over-year in January — the first annual decline since the post-financial-crisis recovery was still under way — as mortgage rates above 6.5%, the oil shock, and a wave of new inventory finally overwhelmed the buyer demand that had held prices aloft. Regional data was stark: Sun Belt markets that led the pandemic boom are now leading the correction.
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller / CNBC
The Fed Held Rates Steady — but Quietly Erased Its 2026 Rate Cuts From the Dot Plot
The FOMC voted this afternoon to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with two members dissenting in favor of a cut, while several others quietly erased their projected 2026 rate reductions from the updated dot plot entirely. It's Powell's second-to-last press conference as chair, and his job is essentially to say nothing reassuring in the most reassuring voice possible.
Source: Federal Reserve Board
The world's largest emergency oil release in history — enough for about four days
When 32 nations agreed last week to release 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves — the largest coordinated release ever — the math quietly gave away the game: global consumption runs at roughly 105 million barrels a day, so the entire effort covers about four days of normal demand. The Strait of Hormuz, for comparison, moves 20 million barrels a day when it's open.
Source: International Energy Agency / Reuters
One-year inflation expectations just ended six months of consecutive declines
The University of Michigan's preliminary March survey showed one-year inflation expectations stalling at 3.4%, ending a six-month streak of declines — the first such reversal since the post-pandemic surge. Consumers cited gasoline prices as the most immediate concern, with uncertainty about broader passthrough described as "high."
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers