The 5-Stat

Five Figures That Caught Our Eye — Jun 2, 2026

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Get it in your inbox

No marquee report on the calendar today — so five quieter numbers, from the American factory floor to a forty-year bond in Tokyo, worth knowing anyway.

Jun 2, 2026

47.4

U.S. Factory Activity Contracted for a Fifth Straight Month in May, With the ISM Manufacturing Index at 47.4 — but the Prices-Paid Gauge Jumped to 72.3, Its Highest Since Mid-2022, the Textbook Signature of Stagflation

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index, released Monday, came in at 47.4 for May — below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction for the fifth month running. The unsettling part sits one line down: the prices-paid sub-index leapt to 72.3, its hottest reading since the middle of 2022, as the war's energy shock and a year of tariffs keep working their way up the supply chain. Factories paying more for materials while building less is the exact combination economists least like to see — soft demand and hot costs at the same time. It is not the report a Fed already split over whether to hike or cut wanted to read.

Source: Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing PMI, May 2026

1.9%

Workers Have Stopped Quitting: the JOLTS Quits Rate Slipped to 1.9% in April — the Lowest Outside the Pandemic in Years — While Job Openings Fell Toward 6.8 Million and the Old 2-to-1 Edge of Openings Over Jobseekers Has Narrowed to Roughly 1-to-1

The quits rate — the share of workers who voluntarily walk each month, and the cleanest read on how confident people feel about landing something better — fell to 1.9% in April, down from the 3% it hit during the 2021–22 "Great Resignation." Job openings dropped to about 6.8 million, and the ratio of openings to unemployed workers has collapsed from roughly two-to-one at the 2022 peak to about one-to-one today. Nobody's getting laid off, but nobody's confident enough to jump, either. When people stop quitting, it usually means they looked around and didn't love what they saw.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), April 2026

$120K

It Now Takes Roughly $120,000 a Year to Afford the Typical U.S. Home for Sale — About $43,000 More Than the Income Needed to Rent — Which Is Why Renting Is Cheaper Than Buying in All 50 of the Largest Metros

With the 30-year mortgage parked near 6.45% and prices still elevated, a household now needs to earn about $120,000 a year to afford the median home listed for sale — keeping housing under the standard 30% of income — versus roughly $77,000 to afford the typical rental. That is a gap north of $43,000, and it is why all 50 of the largest U.S. metros are currently cheaper to rent in than to buy, with the typical monthly mortgage running close to 50% above the typical rent. For years the down payment was the wall that kept buyers out; now the monthly math doesn't clear either. Renting isn't the consolation prize anymore — for a lot of households it is simply the answer.

Source: Redfin / Bankrate — Rent vs. Buy Affordability Studies

150,009

U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Jumped 14% in the First Quarter to 150,009 Cases — With Small-Business Reorganizations Up 67% — While Large-Corporate Filings Just Logged Their Highest Annual Count Since 2010

Total U.S. bankruptcy filings climbed 14% from a year earlier in the first quarter, to 150,009 cases, according to Epiq data compiled by the American Bankruptcy Institute — and small-business Subchapter V elections jumped a startling 67%. The big-company tally tells the same story: large corporate filings hit their highest annual count since 2010 last year, and the pace has carried into 2026. The drivers are exactly what you would guess in this economy — borrowing costs that never came back down, input prices the war keeps pushing up, and lenders quietly tightening the spigot. Bankruptcies are a lagging indicator; they are the bill that shows up after the party, and the bill is getting bigger.

Source: American Bankruptcy Institute / Epiq AACER / S&P Global Market Intelligence

4.4%

Japan's 40-Year Government Bond Yield Pushed to a Fresh Record Near 4.4% — Up From Effectively Zero a Few Years Ago — as the World's Most Indebted Major Government Loses Its Grip on the Cheap-Money Era

For three decades Japan was the proof that a government could borrow almost endlessly for almost nothing. That era is ending: the 40-year JGB yield, near zero not long ago, has pushed to a record around 4.4%, with the 30-year close behind. The pressure is homegrown — a Bank of Japan that has lifted rates to a 30-year high, Prime Minister Takaichi's taste for fiscal stimulus, and a debt load worth roughly 230% of GDP, the heaviest of any major economy. Why an American should care: Japanese institutions are among the largest foreign owners of U.S. Treasuries, and once they can earn 4%-plus at home, the reason to keep funding Washington's deficit fades — the term premium that vanished for a generation is waking up everywhere at once, from Tokyo to the U.S. 30-year that touched its highest since 2008 last month.

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance / Bank of Japan / Trading Economics