The 5-Stat

Five Numbers from PCE Day — May 28, 2026

Thursday, May 28, 2026

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The Fed's preferred inflation gauge accelerated, Q1 GDP got marked down, and the personal saving rate just hit a 46-month low. Three releases at 8:30 this morning, all pointing the same direction.

May 28, 2026

2.6%

The Personal Saving Rate Just Dropped to 2.6% in April — Its Lowest Reading Since June 2022, When CPI Was Running at a 40-Year High — as Americans Run Down Their Cushions to Keep Pace With $4.56 Gas

This morning's Personal Income and Outlays release showed Americans saving just 2.6% of after-tax income in April, down from 3.2% in March and 4.3% to start the year — the lowest reading since June 2022, when CPI was hitting a 9.1% pandemic-era peak. For context, the long-run average is 8.4%, and the all-time floor of 1.4% was set in July 2005, when home equity was being treated like an ATM. Incomes were flat on the month, disposable income slipped 0.1%, and real disposable income — what people can actually buy — fell 0.5%. The consumer is still spending; the way they're funding it is starting to look fragile.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 / CNN Business

3.8%

Headline PCE Inflation Climbed to 3.8% in April — the Highest Reading Since May 2023 — While Core Ticked Up to 3.3% as the Iran War's Energy Shock Kept Working Through the Consumer Basket

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge accelerated again in April, with headline PCE up 0.4% on the month and 3.8% year-over-year — the third straight monthly increase and a near-three-year high. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is what new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh actually weights most, came in at a softer 0.2% on the month but ticked up to 3.3% annually from 3.2%. Goldman now expects core PCE to hover near 3% for the rest of 2026, with headline staying close to 4% — both well above the 2% target the Fed last reliably hit in early 2021. Futures continue to price roughly a 40% chance of a Fed hike before year-end rather than a cut, a setup that was nearly inconceivable in February.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / CNBC / CME FedWatch

1.6%

Q1 2026 GDP Was Revised Down to 1.6% Annualized From the Initial 2.0% Estimate — and Corporate Profit Growth Collapsed From $246.9 Billion in Q4 to Just $40.4 Billion in Q1

The BEA's second look at first-quarter growth came in at 1.6% annualized this morning, a 0.4-point haircut from the advance estimate released April 30, with the revision concentrated in consumer spending and inventory investment. That sets a noticeably weaker base for the economy heading into the Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28. The same release delivered the first read on Q1 corporate profits — and they grew by a thin $40.4 billion compared with $246.9 billion in Q4 2025, the smallest quarterly gain in nearly two years. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 dropped to 3.8% on the back of today's revisions, from yesterday's 4.3% — still hot, but no longer on fire.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Second Estimate, Q1 2026 / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

+19%

Best Buy Crushed Q1 Before the Bell With +2.0% Comp Sales — Its First Positive Quarterly Comp in Six Quarters — and the Stock Jumped 19%; CEO Corie Barry Used the Same Press Release to Announce She'll Step Down This Fall

Best Buy reported Q1 FY27 this morning with revenue of $8.94 billion (vs $8.83B expected), adjusted EPS of $1.28 (vs $1.22), and comparable sales up 2.0% — ending four straight quarters of declines and pushing the stock up roughly 19% by midday. Gaming, computing, mobile, and services were all positive; only appliances dragged. Buried in the same release was a leadership announcement: CEO Corie Barry, who steered Best Buy through pandemic, tariffs, and the post-2022 electronics freeze, will hand the keys to chief merchant Jason Bonfig in the fall. Pair this print with Target's +5.6% comp last week and Walmart's softer-than-expected Q1 the day after, and the consumer story refuses to fit any single shape.

Source: Best Buy Co., Inc. — Q1 FY27 Earnings Release / CNBC

$91

WTI Crude Bounced Back Above $91 a Barrel This Morning After Fresh U.S. Strikes Near the Strait of Hormuz Overnight — Even as a Reported 60-Day Memorandum Would Guarantee Unrestricted Shipping Through the Strait

WTI rebounded more than 2% to trade above $91 Thursday, with Brent near $96, after U.S. forces struck an Iranian military site near Hormuz overnight, intercepted several drones, and Kuwait reported intercepting a missile fired toward the country; the IRGC said it had targeted an unspecified U.S. airbase in response. Even with the flare-up, oil is down more than 10% for the month on optimism that a deal is close — Axios reported Wednesday that the two sides have drafted a 60-day memorandum guaranteeing unrestricted Hormuz shipping, with Iran agreeing to clear mines within 30 days, pending Trump's sign-off. The roughly $20 wedge between today's Brent and where it traded before the February strikes is, mechanically, the single biggest contributor to the inflation acceleration captured in this morning's PCE print. Take that wedge away, and most of today's data day reads pretty differently.

Source: CNBC / Trading Economics / Axios