Five Figures Worth Knowing This Week — May 11, 2026
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Stocks at records, gas at $4.50, and a CPI report twenty-four hours away.
May 11, 2026
The S&P 500 Closed at Another All-Time High on Monday — Just One Trading Day After Notching Its Sixth Consecutive Weekly Gain, the Longest Streak Since Late 2024
Wall Street's main benchmark has now reclaimed every dollar it lost in the post-Iran-war selloff and then some, closing Monday at 7,412.84 after six straight weekly gains. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all hit fresh records during the run, even as crude oil ticked back toward $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed more than ten weeks into the war. BlackRock's strategists summarized the apparent paradox plainly this week: the AI buildout is offsetting the energy drag, and credit markets are still pricing an eventual reopening of the Strait. If either assumption breaks, the trade does too.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices / BlackRock Investment Institute
April Added 115,000 Jobs — But Roughly Half Came From a Single Industry, and the Three-Month Payroll Average Has Now Slipped to 48,000
Friday's BLS release cleared the consensus 55,000 estimate, but health care and social assistance contributed 53,900 jobs on its own — and that same category has accounted for well over 100% of all U.S. job growth in the past 12 months. The three-month average is now 48,000, the slowest non-recession reading in roughly a decade, and federal employment has shed about 345,000 positions since January 2025. Unemployment held at 4.3%, which the labor market is increasingly defending by simply having fewer people in it: participation fell to 61.8%, the lowest since October 2021.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, April 2026
Jerome Powell's Term as Fed Chair Ends Friday — Making This the Last Full Week of an Eight-Year Tenure That Began at 1.7% Inflation and Ends at 3.8%
Powell's chairmanship is in its final week after the Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination along party lines last month. In a break from modern tradition, Powell will stay on the Board of Governors — possibly through 2028 — while Warsh runs the show. Warsh has promised "regime change" at the Fed and faster rate cuts, but three regional bank presidents already dissented from the April statement in a clear signal that the rest of the FOMC isn't inclined to follow on cuts. The June meeting under Warsh will be the first time a sitting and former chair have shared the room since the 1940s.
Source: Federal Reserve / NPR / CNBC
Treasury and Wall Street Both Now Estimate the FY 2026 Federal Deficit Will Hit $2 Trillion — Up From $1.8 Trillion Last Year, and Roughly Twice the 3%-of-GDP Target Most Economists Consider Sustainable
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which advises Secretary Bessent ahead of each refunding, presented a $2.1 trillion deficit estimate last week; market participants come in slightly lower at $2.0 trillion. Either way, the country is on track for its highest peacetime deficit in history outside of recession — and the projected FY27 gap is bigger. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget summed it up: $2 trillion deficits used to require a major recession to produce. Now they're just the baseline.
Source: U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee / Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Mother's Day Spending Hit a Record $38 Billion Sunday — Up $3.9 Billion From Last Year, With Gen Z Planning to Outspend Every Other Generation at an Average of $922 Per Person
The NRF's annual forecast came in at a record $38 billion total, with per-person spending averaging $284.25 — up 3.7% even as gas at the pump has chewed through discretionary budgets. The generational split from PwC's parallel survey is the more interesting number: Gen Z planned to spend an average of $922 on Mother's Day gifts, versus $803 for millennials, $311 for Gen X, and $168 for Boomers. It feels backwards until you remember that younger shoppers are typically buying for one mom while older shoppers spread the budget across spouses, mothers, and mothers-in-law.
Source: National Retail Federation / PwC Consumer Survey 2026