The Quarter in Five Stats — Mar 29, 2026
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Q1 started at an all-time high. It ends with gas at $4, GDP at 0.7%, and a labor market that refuses to read the news.
Mar 29, 2026
The National Gas Average Hit $3.98 This Week — Up Exactly $1 From the $2.98 Drivers Were Paying the Day Before the Iran War Began
AAA's March 26 report logged a 34% spike in four weeks — the fastest single-month March surge on record — pushing regular gas to its priciest level since September 2023. California hit $5.84 while Oklahoma held at $3.23, a $2.61 spread between the nation's most and least expensive states that hasn't been this wide in years.
Source: AAA Newsroom, March 26, 2026
Physical Middle East Oil Is Up 76% Since the War — More Than Double the 36% Rise Shown by the Brent Futures Price Everyone Quotes
Brent crude futures are up 36% since February 27, but the Dubai grade — which prices actual physical barrels delivered to Asian buyers — is up 76%, because paper traders can price in ceasefire optimism while tanker captains cannot. The divergence is the clearest signal that financial markets are still partially in denial about the physical supply shock working its way through the system.
Source: Wall Street Journal / CNBC, March 28, 2026
The Average 2026 Tax Refund Is $3,623 — Up 10.8% From Last Year, the Biggest Single-Season Jump in More Than a Decade
The IRS has pushed $182.6 billion back to taxpayers this season — nearly $20 billion ahead of the same point in 2025 — as new deductions for tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest hit returns for the first time under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. In a quirk of timing that feels almost designed to confuse, the biggest refund year in modern memory arrives in the same month gas prices surged $1 at the pump.
Source: IRS Filing Season Statistics / Tax Foundation, March 2026
Q4 2025 GDP Was Revised Down to 0.7% — Half the Initial Estimate, and the Weakest Quarter Since Early 2025's Tariff-Shock Contraction
The BEA's March 13 revision sliced Q4 growth from 1.4% to 0.7%, with the 43-day government shutdown subtracting roughly a full percentage point on its own — meaning the slowdown was both real and partly self-inflicted. The economy had less runway heading into the Iran war than almost anyone realized, which is worth keeping in mind as Q1 2026 data starts arriving next month.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Second Estimate, Q4 2025
Initial Jobless Claims Held at 210,000 This Week — the Labor Market's Response to a Stock Market Correction, an Oil Shock, and Near-50% Recession Odds Has Been, So Far, Nothing
As markets fell 10% from January highs and recession forecasts piled up, Americans kept their jobs at the same steady clip they've maintained for months — initial claims barely moved, and continuing claims edged to a near two-year low. Exactly how the labor market is shrugging off everything else simultaneously is the question worth watching, because it usually doesn't last.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor — Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims