Five Figures That Caught Our Eye — Mar 24, 2026
Get it in your inbox
"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." — Laurence J. Peter
Mar 24, 2026
The Three-Month Rolling Average for Job Creation Has Collapsed to Just 6,000 — The Weakest Streak Since the Recovery From the 2008 Financial Crisis
Payrolls fell 92,000 in February — well below the 50,000 gain economists expected — and a downward revision showed December actually lost 17,000 jobs, pushing the three-month rolling average to a nearly flat 6,000. Three of the past five months have now posted outright job losses, a pattern not seen since 2010, as federal employment sheds 330,000 workers and the labor market sits in what one analyst called a 'low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.'
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, February 2026
The Average Household's Projected Tax Refund Bump This Year — Goldman Sachs' Estimate of Their Extra Gas Spending Is $740
The Tax Foundation estimates the average household will net $748 more in refunds under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — which turns out to be almost precisely what Goldman Sachs estimates they'll spend extra on gas this year as a direct result of the Iran war. Gas hit $3.94 nationally on Sunday, up more than a dollar since the conflict started, and economists have a name for the asymmetry: 'rocket and feathers,' because prices shoot up fast and drift down for months.
Source: Tax Foundation / Goldman Sachs / AAA / Fortune
Japan's 10-Year Government Bond Just Hit 2.32% — Near a 27-Year High — and Cheap Japanese Money Has Been Global Finance's Quiet Foundation for Three Decades
Japan's 10-year yield hit 2.32% on Monday, nearing the multi-decade highs set in January, as oil-driven inflation and the Middle East conflict harden expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening. For three decades, Japanese investors flooded into U.S. Treasuries and European bonds because domestic rates paid almost nothing — as that math reverses, global fixed income loses one of its steadiest sources of demand, which is one quiet reason long yields everywhere keep drifting up.
Source: Bloomberg / Trading Economics
Gold Has Fallen About 18% — Nearly $1,000 Per Ounce — From Its March 2 All-Time High in Under Three Weeks
Gold peaked at roughly $5,408 per ounce on March 2 and closed Monday near $4,417, a drop of about $991 in under three weeks. Part of the reversal is forced liquidation as equity losses push institutional investors to raise cash — but a commodity that was supposed to be the beneficiary of exactly this kind of geopolitical chaos shedding nearly a thousand dollars this fast is still a story.
Source: CBS News / Priority Gold / LiteFinance
Americans Will Wager About $4.5 Billion on March Madness This Year — the First Season Prediction Markets Have Meaningfully Shaped the Total
Legal sportsbooks expect roughly $3.3 billion in March Madness bets, up from $3.1 billion last year — but add in prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and the total swells to an estimated $4.5 billion. The tell: Kalshi's college basketball trading volume surpassed both the NFL and the NBA in February alone, before a single tournament game had been played.
Source: The Action Network / Glink Financial Analysis, March 2026