The Sunday Numbers — Mar 22, 2026
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The fourth straight week of losses just closed. Spring started two days ago. Not everything got the memo.
Mar 22, 2026
The Russell 2000 Became the First Major U.S. Index to Enter Correction Territory — the Dow and Nasdaq Narrowly Avoided It
The small-cap Russell 2000 fell more than 2% Friday and officially crossed into correction territory — down more than 10% from its recent high — while the Dow and Nasdaq each briefly traded there before closing just above the threshold. Small-caps are more exposed to domestic borrowing costs and consumer slowdowns than their large-cap counterparts, and when they go first, it usually means something.
Source: TheStreet / CNBC
Futures Markets Have Priced Out Every Fed Rate Cut for 2026 — and Macquarie Just Called for a Hike in 2027
As recently as January, markets expected two or three Fed cuts this year; CME FedWatch now shows essentially no probability of any reduction before December. Macquarie's chief economist went further after Wednesday's press conference, writing that the firm sees the Fed's next policy move as an outright rate hike, most likely in early 2027 — a call that EY-Parthenon's chief economist described as "entirely plausible."
Source: CME Group FedWatch / Fortune
Moody's Analytics Puts the Odds of a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months at Near Coin Flip
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi posted this week that the firm's machine-learning model now puts the probability of a recession starting within 12 months at an "uncomfortably high 49%" — a coin flip, before the full drag of the oil shock has even worked through the data. For comparison, Goldman Sachs put its own recession probability at 25% last week; the gap between those two estimates tells you most of what you need to know about the range of outcomes right now.
Source: Moody's Analytics / The Motley Fool
Uber and Rivian Just Agreed to Deploy Half a Million Electric Robotaxis by 2031 — More Than Any Robotaxi Fleet Ever Attempted
Rivian and Uber announced a deal this week to put up to 500,000 electric autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform by 2031 — a number that would dwarf every current robotaxi operation combined and fundamentally reshape urban ride-hailing economics if it actually happens. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs kept cautious ratings on Rivian but noted the deal brings meaningful incremental capital to a company that, at the exact moment borrowing costs hit their 2026 high, badly needs it.
Source: Rivian / Goldman Sachs / CNBC
The 10-Year Treasury Just Hit Its Highest Level Since July 2025 — and It's Running the Housing Market Right Now, Not the Fed
The benchmark 10-year yield closed Friday at 4.39%, its highest since July 2025, with the 30-year touching 4.96% — and because mortgage rates track the 10-year rather than the fed funds rate, the bond market has effectively taken the wheel on U.S. housing costs. Three weeks ago the 30-year fixed dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, briefly reviving spring buyer interest; by Friday it was back near 6.5%, which is a rough way for peak homebuying season to open.
Source: Federal Reserve Board H.15 / U.S. Department of the Treasury