What the Data Said This Week — Mar 18, 2026
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"Inflation is taxation without legislation." — Milton Friedman
Mar 18, 2026
The Fed held rates for the second straight meeting — and the dot plot got more honest
The FOMC voted this afternoon to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with two members dissenting in favor of a cut, while several others quietly erased their projected 2026 rate reductions from the updated dot plot entirely. It's Powell's second-to-last press conference as chair, and his job is essentially to say nothing reassuring in the most reassuring voice possible.
Source: Federal Reserve Board
The world's largest emergency oil release in history — enough for about four days
When 32 nations agreed last week to release 400 million barrels from their strategic reserves — the largest coordinated release ever — the math quietly gave away the game: global consumption runs at roughly 105 million barrels a day, so the entire effort covers about four days of normal demand. The Strait of Hormuz, for comparison, moves 20 million barrels a day when it's open.
Source: International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 2026
The Philippines cut its government workweek to save fuel — Thailand's solution was short-sleeve shirts
With roughly 80% of the oil that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz bound for Asia, governments across the region have been improvising at speed: the Philippines moved to a four-day government workweek, Thailand told civil servants to take the stairs, turn up the thermostat, and swap suits for short sleeves, and Myanmar introduced alternating driving days. That last one came straight out of the 1973 oil crisis playbook — because there really isn't a new one.
Source: Fortune / Al Jazeera / Bloomberg
Russia's fossil fuel windfall in the two weeks since the Iran war started
While the U.S. and Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran and oil markets convulse, Russia has quietly collected an estimated €6 billion in fossil fuel revenues over the first two weeks of the conflict — as energy-starved nations seek alternatives to Gulf crude and Moscow's shadow tanker fleet picks up the slack. The U.S. even temporarily suspended sanctions on 30 Russia-linked tankers to allow them to carry crude to Asia, which is one of those sentences that requires reading twice.
Source: Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air / Carbon Brief
The Strait has been effectively closed for 18 days — India has less than 30 in reserve
India — the world's third-largest oil importer, sourcing about 60% of its crude from the Gulf — holds less than 30 days of strategic oil reserves, and today marks 18 days since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Panic buying of cooking gas has already hit major Indian cities, with restaurants quietly shortening their menus to cut cooking time.
Source: Christian Science Monitor / Reuters