Five Figures That Caught Our Eye — Mar 14, 2026
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GDP halved. Consumer sentiment at a 2026 low. Canada lost 84,000 jobs. Gas cleared $3.50. At least the FOMC is only four days away — that should help.
Mar 14, 2026
Q4 GDP Got Cut in Half — and Inflation Got Hotter at the Same Time
The BEA revised its Q4 2025 GDP estimate down by half on Friday — from 1.4% to 0.7% — reflecting deeper misses in exports, consumer spending, and government investment than the advance estimate had captured. The six-week government shutdown is the most legitimate culprit: economists estimate it knocked about one full percentage point off growth on its own. But the GDP price index revised up to 3.8%, not down. So while growth undershot, prices overshot. That combination — slow growth and accelerating prices, heading into a $100/barrel oil shock — is the one nobody wants to see.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Second Estimate, Q4 2025
Consumer Sentiment Hit Its Lowest Level of 2026 — Because of Nine Days
The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading was 55.5, but the headline number conceals something more revealing. Interviews completed before the Iran conflict showed improvement over February; the nine days of post-conflict interviews that followed erased every gain. Year-ahead inflation expectations stalled at 3.4% after six consecutive months of decline. Personal finance expectations fell 7.5% nationally — and notably, the sharpest post-February-28 declines came not only from lower-income households, but from the high-income, high-wealth consumers whose spending had propped up aggregate demand through 2023 and 2024.
Source: University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers, March 2026 (Preliminary)
Canada Lost 84,000 Jobs in February — One of Its Worst Reports in Four Years
Statistics Canada reported Friday that Canadian employers shed 84,000 positions in February — more than 108,000 of them full-time — against a consensus estimate of +10,000. The unemployment rate jumped to 6.7%. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter called it "simply brutal, weak almost from head to toe." Prime Minister Carney blamed U.S. trade uncertainty; economists noted that Canada had added virtually zero net jobs over the prior 12 months, making February's collapse less a shock than a confirmation of a labor market that had been stalling for most of a year.
Source: Statistics Canada — Labour Force Survey, February 2026
The S&P 500 Just Finished Its Longest Losing Streak in About a Year
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,632 — its lowest level of 2026 and 4.96% below the January 27 all-time high — after posting its first three-week losing streak in roughly a year. The Dow fell about 2% for the week; the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%. Brent crude settled at $103 a barrel on Friday, and with Q4 GDP printing at 0.7% while inflation gauges run above 3%, the word "stagflation" appeared with more regularity in market commentary this week than at any point in the past two years. The market hasn't decided whether the label is warranted. But the direction over the past three weeks has not been subtle.
Source: CNBC / S&P Dow Jones Indices
Gas Cleared $3.50 in About Ten Business Days — a Pace Not Seen Since 2022
The national average for regular gas hit $3.58 per gallon as of Wednesday, up from below $3.00 as recently as late February — a 20%-plus jump in roughly ten business days, the fastest move in pump prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For a household driving 15,000 miles a year in a car getting 28 mpg, the swing from $2.98 to $3.58 costs about $320 more per year — not catastrophic on its own, but visible every time you pull into a gas station. California is already at $5.34. And with Brent at $103 as of Friday's close, the national average probably isn't done moving.
Source: AAA / U.S. Energy Information Administration