The Week by the Numbers — Mar 12, 2026
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The Strait of Hormuz is closed, the job market is cracking, and 99.3% of the market thinks the Fed is going to do absolutely nothing about it. Welcome to Thursday.
Mar 12, 2026
The Largest Emergency Oil Reserve Release in History Buys 26 Days
The IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from member nations' strategic reserves — the largest emergency stockpile draw in history, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels — covers roughly 26 days of the current supply gap from the Hormuz shutdown, per the IEA's own math. Brent crude responded to the news by holding steady above $100 a barrel, which tells you everything you need to know about how the market rates the plan.
Source: International Energy Agency / NPR
The Average Unemployed American Has Been Out of Work for Over Half a Year
The average duration of unemployment hit 25.7 weeks in February — the longest since December 2021 — a figure buried beneath the headline −92,000 payroll loss. Long-term unemployment (jobless for 27 weeks or more) stands at 1.9 million people, up 400,000 from a year ago. A frozen labor market is one thing. One where people increasingly can't find their way back in is another.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, February 2026
Housing Starts Just Hit Their Highest Level in Nearly a Year — Yes, Really
New residential construction unexpectedly surged 7.2% in January to an annualized pace of 1.487 million units — the highest reading in nearly a year and well above consensus estimates — in data released this morning by the Commerce Department. It's a genuine positive surprise in a week that has offered almost nothing else, suggesting builders still see demand on the other side of whatever's happening in the Gulf.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Commerce Department
Your Morning Coffee Is 18% More Expensive Than It Was a Year Ago
Coffee prices jumped 18% year-over-year in February — one of the sharpest annual increases for any common grocery item in Wednesday's BLS data — driven by extreme drought and flooding across Vietnam and Brazil, the world's two largest producers. Americans drink roughly 3.1 cups per day on average, so this one hits the household budget at the most inconvenient possible hour: 7 AM.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, February 2026
The Probability the Fed Does Nothing Next Week
CME FedWatch puts the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at its March 18–19 FOMC meeting at 99.3% — up from 93.6% just a month ago — even as oil trades at $100, February shed 92,000 jobs, and inflation sits above target. There is something genuinely strange about near-certainty of inaction in one of the most uncertain economic weeks in recent memory, but the Fed is caught between an oil-driven inflation threat and a cracking labor market, and doing nothing is, for now, the most defensible choice.
Source: CME Group — FedWatch Tool