What the Data Said This Week — Mar 11, 2026
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"Inflation is the one form of taxation that can be imposed without legislation." — Milton Friedman
Mar 11, 2026
JPMorgan Just Blinked on Private Credit — and That's the Real Story Today
JPMorgan is marking down software loans held by private credit funds and cutting the credit it extends to the sector — a preemptive move in the $2 trillion industry where BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl are already limiting investor redemptions. The mechanism makes it interesting: JPMorgan lends to the funds that lend to companies, so marking down the collateral forces funds to either post more capital or borrow less — leverage on leverage, unwinding. PIMCO's president described it this week as "a crisis of really bad underwriting."
Source: Financial Times / Reuters / CNBC
America Is Borrowing $50 Billion Every Week — and the Interest Tab Just Hit $433 Billion
CBO estimates the U.S. ran a $1 trillion deficit in the first five months of fiscal 2026 — which works out to roughly $50 billion in fresh borrowing every single week. In those same five months, interest payments alone hit $433 billion, with the national debt now sitting at $38.9 trillion and the full-year deficit projected at $1.9 trillion.
Source: Congressional Budget Office — Monthly Budget Review, February 2026
Egg Prices Are Down 42% in a Year — and It Barely Moved the Inflation Needle
Egg prices fell an extraordinary 42.1% year-over-year in February — the steepest annual drop for any major food category in recent memory — as avian flu supply disruptions finally unwind. The catch: eggs represent exactly 0.125% of the CPI basket, so the entire spectacular crash shaved perhaps 0.05 percentage points off headline inflation. Enjoy your omelets; the rest of the grocery bill is still up 3.1%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, February 2026
February CPI Came In Exactly As Expected — Which Is Part of the Problem
Consumer prices rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching January's reading and Wall Street's forecast to the decimal — which sounds reassuring until you notice that a data gap from last fall's shutdown means the true rate is probably closer to 2.7% per Moody's, and none of it includes the oil shock that started before the ink was dry. March CPI, due April 10th, is going to look very different.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, February 2026
Your Clothing Bill Is Quietly Rising — and the Supreme Court Won't Fix It
Apparel prices jumped 1.3% in February, their biggest monthly gain since September 2018, as tariff costs continue flowing through to clothing and footwear. Even though the Supreme Court struck down Trump's broadest IEEPA tariffs in late February, businesses won't lower prices while awaiting refunds — and a replacement 10% blanket tariff is already in force under a different legal authority.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / CNBC