The 5-Stat

Five Numbers for the Ides of March — Mar 15, 2026

Sunday, March 15, 2026

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"October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." — Mark Twain

Mar 15, 2026

September

Goldman Just Moved the First Fed Cut to September — and the Dot Plot May Do the Same on Wednesday

In a note published March 12, Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the first Fed rate cut from June to September, citing the oil shock's upward inflationary pressure and raising its year-end headline PCE forecast to 2.9%. Per Bloomberg, traders aren't currently pricing in even a single full cut for all of 2026 — an extraordinary shift from December, when a June cut was widely assumed. The real event Wednesday isn't the rate decision itself (a hold at 3.50–3.75% is priced at over 93% certainty) — it's the updated dot plot, where some FOMC members are expected to mark down their 2026 cut projections from December's median of one cut. The Fed has a long history of revising its forecasts. This one's going in the wrong direction.

Source: Goldman Sachs / TheStreet

4.91%

The 30-Year Treasury Is Flirting With 5% — and the Bond Market Is Saying Something

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield closed last week near 4.91%, at its 95th percentile relative to the past five years, as a near-parallel sell-off pushed yields 13 to 16 basis points higher across all maturities in a single week. The bond market is pricing inflation risk above growth risk — the oil shock, sticky core PCE at 3.1%, and prospective tariff pressure are all pointing the same direction. For homebuyers, this translates directly: the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.11% as of March 12, up from 6.00% the prior week and climbing. The bond market and the equity market have been telling different stories about the economy lately, but one of them is wrong — and the bond market is usually the more sober of the two.

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates / Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

117.6

Housing Affordability Hit Its Best Level Since March 2022 — and Home Sales Are Still Down

NAR's Housing Affordability Index rose to 117.6 in February — its eighth consecutive monthly gain and its highest reading since March 2022, as wage growth outpaced home-price appreciation and the 30-year mortgage averaged 6.05% for the month. The confusing part: there are now more than 6 million more jobs in the U.S. than in 2019, yet annual home sales are running about 1 million units below pre-pandemic levels. February's pace of 4.09 million annual units is real progress, but NAR's own chief economist described it as 'a long way to go to return to pre-pandemic levels of transaction activity.' Improving affordability and improved behavior are two different things — and right now, only one of them is moving.

Source: National Association of Realtors — Existing-Home Sales Report, February 2026

$3,676

The Average Tax Refund Is Up $352 This Year — and Running Well Short of the Hype

As of March 6, the average 2026 federal tax refund stands at $3,676, up $352 from the same point in 2025, driven by new deductions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for tips, overtime, senior income, and auto loan interest. About 45% of all 2026 returns included at least one of Trump's new breaks, and refunds for those filers came in roughly $775 larger than last year's typical amount. The White House projected refunds would rise by $1,000 or more for many filers; the IRS data through early March has the average gain tracking closer to $352, in line with Tax Foundation modeling. Either way, the $161 billion in total refunds issued so far — up 10.9% from a year ago — is real money hitting bank accounts in the same week the Fed is confirming it isn't cutting rates.

Source: Internal Revenue Service / Tax Foundation

$3.3B

Today Is Selection Sunday — and Americans Will Legally Wager $3.3 Billion on What Happens Next

The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $3.3 billion on this year's NCAA men's and women's basketball tournaments — a record, and a 54% increase over the past three years — not including office pools, bracket contests, or prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which are growing fast. Between 57 and 62 million people are expected to fill out brackets this year, paying an average entry fee of roughly $29. For context: legal wagers on this year's Super Bowl totaled $1.76 billion. March Madness outbets the Super Bowl. Every year. By a lot.

Source: American Gaming Association — 2026 March Madness Wagering Estimates