Five Stats That Define This Moment — Mar 9, 2026
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Oil hit $100 this morning. Unemployment hit 4.4% on Friday. The FOMC meets in eight days. It's going to be a week.
Mar 9, 2026
U.S. Oil Futures Opened Sunday at $107 — Above $100 for the First Time in Nearly Four Years
When oil futures reopened Sunday evening, WTI briefly touched $110 before settling near $107 a barrel — an 18% leap over Friday's close, and the first time U.S. crude has crossed $100 since June 2022. Brent, the global benchmark, followed at $101. Barclays has since warned that Brent could test $120 if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for another two weeks.
Source: Associated Press / Bloomberg
February Payrolls Fell by 92,000 — and the Revisions Made Last Month Look Worse Too
Nonfarm payrolls shed 92,000 in February, more than 140,000 worse than what economists forecast, dragged down by a Kaiser Permanente healthcare strike and continued federal workforce attrition. December was simultaneously revised from a gain of 48,000 to a loss of 17,000. The three-month average is now less than 6,000 jobs per month — stall speed, if it holds.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, February 2026
Gas Prices Are Up 16% in a Week — and That's Before Today's $107 Oil Even Hits the Pump
The national average for regular gasoline hit $3.45 per gallon Sunday, up from $2.98 just five days earlier and ending 13 consecutive weeks under $3.00. California drivers are already averaging $5.16. Prediction markets are placing 63% odds on the national average hitting $4.50 by end of March, with a one-in-three shot at $5.00 — which would be a new all-time record.
Source: AAA / Polymarket
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Tracker Lost a Full Point in Two Weeks — and Doesn't Yet Know About $100 Oil
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model fell to 2.1% as of March 6, down from 3.0% just four days prior and 3.1% at the start of February — before a shot was fired in the Gulf. The deterioration followed weaker consumer spending and private investment data. The next update lands March 12, same day February CPI drops, same week the Fed goes into its meeting.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — GDPNow
The Government's Emergency Oil Reserve Was Bought for $29.70 a Barrel. It's Now Worth $107.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds roughly 415 million barrels of crude, acquired over decades at an average cost of just $29.70 per barrel — meaning the stockpile has effectively tripled in value on paper, to something approaching $44 billion at current prices. The SPR was designed for exactly this kind of moment, but with about 20 days of U.S. consumption in storage, any major release is a one-shot move in what may be an extended conflict. Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have so far resisted calls to tap it.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy — SPR Quick Facts