Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week
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Five Numbers Worth Knowing This Week
"Inflation is taxation without legislation." — Milton Friedman
Factory Input Costs Just Spiked to Their Highest Level Since Inflation Peaked
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index surged 11.5 points in February to 70.5 — its highest reading since June 2022, when inflation was running at 9%. The jump blew past the 60.0 consensus estimate by a mile. Steel, aluminum, and tariff pass-throughs are driving costs across the entire manufacturing value chain, with 14 of 18 industries reporting higher input prices. And here's the thing: this data was collected before the Iran strikes sent oil above $80. ISM Chair Susan Spence said she wouldn't be surprised to see prices climb again in March. Capital Economics put it bluntly — this print will embolden the hawks at the Fed.
Source: Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing Report, February 2026
The Clock on America's New Tariff Regime Is Already Ticking
After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 ruling on February 20th, the White House pivoted within hours to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a Cold War-era provision that's never been used before. It allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for exactly 150 days without congressional approval, and Trump immediately maxed it out. The new duties took effect February 24th, which means they expire July 24th unless Congress votes to extend them. That's a midterm-year vote on tariffs, five months out. The administration is simultaneously launching Section 301 investigations to build a more durable legal foundation, but for now, the entire U.S. tariff architecture rests on a 52-year-old statute designed for currency crises.
Source: White House / Supreme Court — Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, 607 U.S. (2026)
Total Jobs Added in All of 2025 — Yes, the Whole Year
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its annual benchmark revision on February 11th, and it was ugly. Total nonfarm job growth for 2025 was revised from 584,000 down to just 181,000 — an average of roughly 15,000 per month. That's not a labor market cooling. That's a labor market that was barely generating new positions for most of the year. The revision wiped 862,000 jobs from March 2025 payrolls on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the largest downward adjustment in recent memory. January 2026 bounced back with 130,000 new jobs, but the 2025 picture now looks far weaker than anyone realized while it was happening.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, January 2026
The Economy Hit the Brakes Harder Than Expected in Q4
GDP growth decelerated sharply to 1.4% annualized in the fourth quarter of 2025, well below the 2.8% economists had forecast and a steep drop from Q3's 4.4% pace. A six-week federal government shutdown was the biggest culprit — BEA estimates it subtracted a full percentage point from the headline number. Strip that out and you're closer to 2.4%, which is respectable but not exactly roaring. Consumer spending held up, but government outlays cratered and exports fell. Full-year growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. The second estimate drops March 13th, alongside core PCE — and that release could get interesting.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Advance Estimate, Q4 2025
What March Madness Will Cost Your Boss
Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away, and American employers are about to collectively lose an estimated $17.3 billion in productivity. That's the annual projection from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which factors in the roughly 50 million workers who will spend an average of six hours per week watching games, checking brackets, or arguing about seeds during work hours. The odds of filling out a perfect bracket? One in 9.2 quintillion. But don't let that stop you — 56% of employees participate in office pools anyway, and studies show it actually boosts morale. Besides, in a week where the ISM prices index and Middle East conflict are competing for the most alarming headline, a little bracketology might be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas / Plus500
Sources
- 1.Institute for Supply Management — Manufacturing Report, February 2026
- 2.White House / Supreme Court — Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, 607 U.S. (2026)
- 3.Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, January 2026
- 4.Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP Advance Estimate, Q4 2025
- 5.Challenger, Gray & Christmas / Plus500