Five Numbers Before Monday
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Five Numbers Before Monday
The U.S. launched military strikes against Iran on Saturday. Markets open in less than 24 hours. Here's what the data says heading in.
The Oil Chokepoint the World Is Watching Right Now
About 20 million barrels of oil per day flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Iran and Oman that handles roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption. On Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched joint military strikes against Iran. Tehran retaliated within hours, firing missiles at U.S. bases across the Gulf and reportedly ordering the IRGC to close the strait to commercial shipping. Several major oil companies and trading houses suspended shipments through the waterway almost immediately. If the closure holds for more than a few days, analysts warn oil could spike above $100 a barrel — and China, which receives half its crude imports via the strait, would be hit hardest.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / CNBC
SpaceX Is Filing for the Largest IPO in History
In news that would dominate any other week: SpaceX is preparing to file confidential IPO paperwork with the SEC as early as this month, according to Bloomberg. The company is targeting a valuation north of $1.75 trillion and could raise up to $50 billion — dwarfing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record. SpaceX generated roughly $8 billion in profit on $15–16 billion of revenue last year, mostly from Starlink, and its EBITDA margins are estimated at around 50%, more than double the S&P 500 aerospace average. The listing would be the first of what could be a trio of mega-IPOs in 2026, with OpenAI and Anthropic reportedly eyeing offerings later in the year.
Source: Bloomberg
America Probably Lost Jobs in 2025 — and Almost Nobody Noticed
Fed Governor Christopher Waller dropped a quiet bombshell in a speech last week: after annual benchmark revisions, the U.S. economy added an average of just 15,000 jobs per month in 2025. That's the weakest pace in decades outside of a recession. And Waller thinks even that number is overstated — further revisions due in 2027 will likely show payrolls actually shrank. It would make 2025 only the third year since 1945 that nonfarm employment fell without an accompanying recession. The topline GDP numbers looked fine all year, but underneath, the labor market was much softer than the headlines suggested.
Source: Federal Reserve — Governor Waller Speech, February 23, 2026
Duolingo's Stock Has Lost More Than Four-Fifths of Its Value in 10 Months
Duolingo shares hit roughly $92 on Friday, down about 83% from a 52-week high near $545 last May. The language-learning app actually beat Q4 estimates — revenue rose 35%, daily active users topped 52 million — but management's 2026 guidance spooked investors. CEO Luis von Ahn announced Duolingo would prioritize user growth over monetization, deliberately foregoing an estimated $50 million in bookings by making AI features free and reducing subscription friction. It's the mirror image of Block's strategy: where Block fired half its workforce to boost margins, Duolingo is compressing margins to grow. Wall Street punished both approaches this week, which tells you something about the mood right now.
Source: Fast Company / Duolingo Q4 FY2025 Earnings
America's Oil Safety Net Is Less Than Half Full
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve held about 415 million barrels as of last week — enough for roughly 125 days of net imports, but barely 57% of its 714-million-barrel capacity. The reserve peaked at 727 million barrels in 2009 and was drawn down aggressively in 2022 to tame gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Trump administration has been trying to refill it, but progress has been slow. With Iran now in open conflict with the U.S. and the Strait of Hormuz at risk, that buffer matters more than it has in years. Analysts at ClearView Energy Partners noted Saturday that a prolonged Hormuz disruption could outstrip what the SPR can offset. Gas prices, currently around $3 a gallon, are expected to rise to at least $3.10–$3.15 in the coming days.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy / ClearView Energy Partners