What the Data Said This Week
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What the Data Said This Week
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." — Warren Buffett
Nvidia's Next-Quarter Forecast Blew Past Wall Street by $5 Billion
Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 results after the bell Wednesday and beat on every metric that matters — $68.1 billion in revenue (up 73% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of $1.62, and GAAP gross margins back up to 75%. But the real jaw-dropper was the Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance: $78 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%, compared to consensus estimates around $72.6 billion. That's a $5.4 billion beat on the forward look alone. The company said it's not assuming any data center revenue from China in that number, and it shipped its first Vera Rubin samples to customers this week. Jensen Huang keeps raising the bar and then clearing it.
Source: CNBC / Nvidia Investor Relations — Q4 FY2026 Earnings
Meta Just Signed the Biggest Chip Deal That Isn't Nvidia
Meta agreed Tuesday to buy up to $60 billion in AI chips from AMD over five years — along with the option to acquire a 10% stake in the company through performance-based warrants. The deal covers up to six gigawatts of AMD's Instinct GPUs, starting with the custom MI450 in the second half of this year. It's a clear signal that even Nvidia's biggest customers want a second supplier. AMD shares jumped nearly 9% on the news, and CEO Lisa Su called it a "multi-generation partnership." For AMD, it's validation. For the AI chip market, it's the beginning of real competition at the top.
Source: Reuters / AMD Investor Relations
Consumer Expectations Haven't Left the Danger Zone
The Conference Board's consumer expectations index ticked up to 72 in February — an improvement, sure, but it's now been 13 consecutive months below 80, the threshold that historically signals a recession may be ahead. The headline confidence number rose to 91.2, still well below its November 2024 peak. Write-in responses continued to skew negative, with prices, inflation, and trade policy dominating what's on consumers' minds. One bright spot: more people said jobs are "plentiful" than in January. But feeling okay about today and anxious about tomorrow is a strange place to be.
Source: The Conference Board — Consumer Confidence Index, February 2026
Home Sales Just Hit Their Worst January in Years
Existing home sales fell 8.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units — well below the 4.15 million economists expected and close to the lowest level of the entire post-pandemic era. Every region of the country saw declines, led by the West at 10.3%. The median sale price was $396,800, barely above flat year-over-year. NAR's chief economist noted that unusually cold and wet weather made it hard to read the signal, but the underlying math hasn't changed: prices are still stretched and affordability remains a problem even as mortgage rates ease.
Source: National Association of Realtors — Existing-Home Sales, January 2026
Most Americans With Credit Card Debt Have Had It for Over a Year
According to Bankrate's latest credit card debt report, 61% of cardholders carrying a balance have been in debt for at least 12 months — up from 53% just over a year ago. With the average credit card APR still hovering above 19%, that's not just debt, it's compounding quicksand. Total credit card balances hit $1.277 trillion in Q4 2025, a fresh record. And here's the stat that stings: 22% of those carrying card debt say they don't believe they'll ever pay it off.
Source: Bankrate — 2026 Credit Card Debt Report